Detailed employment forecasts for AI-sensitive occupations

(a) Designation of occupations (1) In general The Secretary shall, not later than 240 days after the date of enactment of this Act and not less frequently than once every 2 years thereafter, publish in the Federal Register a list of not less than 15 occupations, at the 6-digit Standard Occupational Classification code level, for which the Secretary determines, in accordance with paragraphs (2) and (3), that a deeper analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence on such occupation would be highly valuable. (2) Factors for selection In determining the occupations to include on a list published under paragraph (1), the Secretary shall consider— (A) the forecast degree to which artificial intelligence developments are expected to increase or decrease demand for employment in such occupations; (B) the current size of employment of the occupations; (C) relevance to policymaking, including determinations of eligibility or priority for Federal grants and other funding for workforce or education initiatives; (D) the feasibility of producing detailed assessments with respect to the occupations; and (E) other factors the Secretary determines relevant. (3) Consultation In determining the occupations to include on a list published under paragraph (1), the Secretary shall— (A) consult with the Workforce Information Advisory Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy; and (B) consider input received from respondents or workshop participants under section 101. (4) Other factors The Secretary shall include in each list published under paragraph (1) a brief description of any other factor described in paragraph (2)(E) used in determining whether an occupation should be included on such list. (b) Range forecasts for designated occupations (1) Report and prediction interval forecasts Not later than 6 months after publication of the first list under subsection (a)(1) and at least once every year thereafter, the Secretary shall publish a report that contains, for each occupation on the most recently published list under such subsection, a forecast in the form of a prediction interval, made by the assigned entity, for employment in such occupation that reflects the forecast range of uncertainty about the impact of technological and other changes on such occupation for— (A) the 2-year period beginning on the date of such report; (B) the 4-year period beginning on the date of such report; and (C) the 8-year period beginning on the date of such report. (2) Forecast bound specification (A) In general For each report under paragraph (1), the prediction interval described in such paragraph shall, with respect to each period described in such paragraph— (i) form a range from the 20th to 80th percentile of forecast projected employment for the occupation, consistent with paragraph (3); or (ii) be for another range of forecasts for the projected employment for the occupation, including ranges expressed as percentage growth or decline in employment in the occupation, if the assigned entity requests to use such other range and the Secretary approves such other range, based on considerations including— (I) the usefulness of the range for research or policymaking; (II) the added difficulty of comparing new and past forecasts for performance evaluation (if applicable); and (III) the feasibility of producing reliable or defensible forecasts for the ranges. (B) Public report regarding other ranges If the assigned entity uses another range of forecasts for purposes of paragraph (1) that is approved by the Secretary under subparagraph (A)(ii), the assigned entity shall publicly release, within 30 days of receiving approval from the Secretary, a brief report stating the nature of the range of forecasts and the reasoning for using such range. (3) Scope of consideration To support the objectivity of the evaluations under paragraph (6), the ranges used pursuant to paragraph (2) shall reflect a holistic forecast except that they shall exclude effects from future acute shocks unrelated to the economic impacts of artificial intelligence, including recessions, wars, or pandemics. (4) Benchmark forecasts For each occupation and period included in the forecasts made in the report under paragraph (1), the assigned entity shall select one or more benchmark forecasts to enable comparative evaluation under paragraph (6), each with an accompanying methodology included in the report required under paragraph (1). Such benchmark forecasts may include— (A) trend-extrapolation models; (B) generative artificial intelligence, such as language models; or (C) other methods the assigned entity determines appropriate, including those that are suggested by respondents or workshop participants under section 101. (5) Method transparency and gap identification In each report published under paragraph (1), the assigned entity shall, with respect to each forecast included in such report, provide— (A) appropriate details on data sources, assumptions, and modeling steps used by the assigned entity for purposes of the forecast to facilitate independent evaluation of the methodology; (B) an assessment of the most significant and resolvable data gaps, analytical disagreements, or other sources of uncertainty with respect to the forecast; (C) details regarding the benchmark forecasts selected under paragraph (4), including basic methodological details for external evaluation and replication where possible; and (D) any supplementary forecasts or additional analyses that the assigned entity determines appropriate for inclusion, such as conditional forecasts. (6) Evaluation (A) Timing The Secretary shall publish an evaluation of each forecast made under paragraph (1) for an occupation and period, as included in the report described in such paragraph, not later than 120 days after the official data necessary to evaluate the outcome for the relevant occupation and period are released. (B) Quantitative assessment Each such evaluation shall include a quantitative assessment using a proper scoring rule that— (i) reflects accuracy for each forecast made under paragraph (1), with respect to an occupation and period described in such paragraph; (ii) reflects aggregate calibration across the set of forecasts produced in the report described in paragraph (1); and (iii) provides comparisons to the benchmark forecast or forecasts produced under paragraph (4). (C) Treatment of acute shocks If the Secretary determines that an acute shock described in paragraph (3) has meaningfully distorted the results of an evaluation under this paragraph, the Secretary shall— (i) attempt to adjust the results in such evaluation to account for such distortion; and (ii) include a description of how the Secretary is accounting for such distortion in the publication of the evaluation under this paragraph. (7) Assigned entity For purposes of this subsection, the term assigned entity means— (A) the Commissioner of Labor Statistics; or (B) another entity determined appropriate by the Secretary for making the prediction interval forecast under paragraph (1), such as the head of the Artificial Intelligence Workforce Research Hub established under section 103. (c) Public archive The Secretary shall maintain an online, public, and machine-readable archive— (1) containing the forecasts, scores, and other documents published under this section; and (2) that complies with— (A) the requirements under section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 (29 U.S.C. 794d); and (B) the most recent Web Content Accessibility Guidelines of the Web Accessibility Initiative, or successor guidelines, applicable to materials posted on a website. (d) Implementation report (1) In general Not later than 4 years after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall publish a public report on the implementation of this section. (2) Contents The report under this subsection shall include— (A) an assessment of the usefulness of the forecasts of prediction intervals under this section to policymakers; (B) a summary of forecasting performance; (C) identification of ways to improve the accuracy or usefulness of the forecasting, including priority data gaps and methodological issues; and (D) a plan for implementing the phase out of the requirements of this section pursuant to subsection (e). (e) Phased sunset (1) In general Except as provided in paragraph (2), the requirements under this section shall cease to be in effect on the date that is 5 years after the date of enactment of this Act. (2) Evaluations The requirements under subsections (b)(6) and (c) shall remain in effect for 10 years after the date of enactment of this Act to continue evaluation of forecasts produced under subsection (b)(1) before the date described in paragraph (1). (f) Authorization of appropriations There is authorized to be appropriated to the Secretary to carry out this section $18,000,000 for the period of fiscal years 2026 through 2030.